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| #1151627 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 07.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 Lee had been steady state overnight, but there are some signs that intensification is beginning to resume. Satellite images show evidence of an eye feature appearing within the central dense overcast and fragmented bands that are now filling in around the center. In addition, a better defined inner core seems to be taking shape. The initial wind speed of 70 kt is at the high end of the satellite estimates, but if these trends continue, the intensity of the hurricane could increase quickly. The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 300/12 kt. The hurricane has taken a slight jog to the north during the last few hours. The steering pattern for Lee is straightforward. A subtropical ridge situated to the north of the hurricane should steer the system west-northwestward during the next several days, but the forward speed will likely slow down late in the weekend and early next week. The models have changed little this cycle, and there is increasing confidence that the core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. However, interests in those islands should continue to monitor Lee`s forecasts as the typical three-day NHC track error is about 90 n mi, and the northernmost Leeward Islands currently have a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force winds on the southern side of the storm. The environment around the cyclone looks ideal for rapid intensification. The models are in fairly good agreement that significant strengthening should begin later today and continue into the weekend, when Lee will likely reach its peak intensity. Fluctuations in strength are likely from days 3 to 5 due to potential eyewall replacements, but Lee is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic early next week. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance in the short term given recent trends, but falls to near the middle of the guidance envelope from 36 to 120 h. As Lee slowly gains latitude and becomes significantly stronger, its wind field is forecast to expand. This is expected to result in a large area of high seas extending well away from the core of the system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend into early next week. There is the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on some of these islands over the weekend, and interests there should monitor future updates to Lee`s forecast. 2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.1N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 16.8N 50.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.8N 52.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 18.8N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 19.8N 57.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 22.5N 63.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 23.5N 65.9W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
