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| #1151711 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 07.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 Lee continues to strengthen at an exceptional rate. The hurricane has quickly developed a clear symmetric eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops. The intensity estimate of 115 kt is based primarily on recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimates near that value. The 102 kt subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 18Z were constrained by Dvorak rules, but both analyses noted that the Data-T was higher. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lee starting at 2330 UTC tonight, which should provide much-needed in-situ data to better evaluate the hurricane`s intensity. Low shear, very warm SSTs and copious moisture should allow Lee to continue to rapidly strengthen at least tonight. All 4 regional hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON) forecast that Lee will become a category 5 hurricane at some point in the next day or so. In addition, the short-term rapid intensification probabilities from SHIPS and DTOPS are still very high. Internal factors like eyewall replacement cycles will become a factor soon, and these are not easily predictable well in advance, but we don`t yet see an indication that Lee`s intensification is stopping yet. The official intensity forecast is quite close to the intensity consensus after 24 h, reflecting just how high several of the model forecasts are. Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands. There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential impacts a week or more out. The biggest risk from Lee during the next 5 days will be high seas and dangerous surf. Rip currents are likely to begin affecting portions of the northern Caribbean on Friday. These conditions will spread westward through the weekend, reaching most of the U.S. East Coast by Sunday evening. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee has become a major hurricane, and further strengthening is expected, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will spread westward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through the weekend. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.9N 51.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 55.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.7N 57.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 23.1N 64.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
