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| #1151920 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 08.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 The small eye of Lee has become cloud filled this afternoon. A 1643 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass and the earlier reconnaissance aircraft reports indicate that Lee`s eye was a little less than 10 n mi in diameter. The microwave imagery revealed a well-defined inner core but there was a lack of banding noted just outside the core. This is likely due to some drier mid-level air that has wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not find any stronger flight-level or SFMR winds after the release of the previous advisory, and the initial intensity for this advisory has been set at 130 kt. This is a blend of the earlier reconnaissance data and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of T6.5 or 127 kt from TAFB and SAB. NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee again this evening. The moderate shear and dry mid-level air that has affected Lee today is not expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more conducive for re-strengthening. However, the timing of eyewall replacement cycles makes it difficult to predict when Lee might re-intensify. Although there is lower-than-normal confidence in the exact details of the intensity forecast, there is high confidence that Lee will remain a powerful hurricane into early next week. The latest NHC wind speed forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus model and the multi-model intensity consensus aids. Lee continues to move west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 11 kt. A well-established mid- to upper-level ridge over the central Atlantic should continue to steer the hurricane west-northward into early next week. The ridge is forecast to build southwestward near Bermuda late this weekend and early next week which is expected cause Lee`s forward speed to slow around 5-7 kt between days 2-4. Late in the period, a mid-latitude trough that will be moving into the Great Lakes Region is forecast to weaken the western portion of the ridge, and Lee should begin to turn more poleward around that time. The track guidance is still in good agreement through about 72 hours, but there is slightly more spread at days 4 and 5. The spread is primarily related to speed differences in the guidance during the latter portion of the forecast period. The latest NHC track prediction is again close to the HCCA and TCVA consensus aids, and it is very similar to the previous official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee`s core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee`s forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.9N 55.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 56.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 20.6N 58.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 22.5N 62.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.0N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.7N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.6W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
