Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #1151995 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 09.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 Lee seems to be recovering from the effects of the strong southwesterly shear. The central dense overcast has expanded, with periodic bursts of deep convection and increased lightning activity near the center. The most recent geostationary satellite infrared images even seem to be hinting a return of Lee`s eye. Overnight, there were multiple reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft of mesovorticies orbiting the closed, elliptical eyewall. Due to safety considerations, the aircraft were unable, at times, to penetrate the eyewall and thus, we have no new in-situ information about the intensity or minimum central pressure. The initial intensity is held at a somewhat uncertain 100 kt and NOAA and Air Force Reserve missions are scheduled to investigate Lee later this morning. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low. Global models suggest that Lee could be affected by strong-to-moderate southwesterly shear for at least the next day, though the European global model shows strong upper-level winds near the hurricane for the entire forecast period. The statistical and consensus intensity aids predict Lee could briefly weaken in the short-term, before restrengthening in about 12-24 hours. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which generally lies between the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids. Regardless of the details, it is likely that Lee will continue to be a dangerous hurricane through the entire forecast period. Lee is moving west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The hurricane is situated to the south of a mid-level ridge that is predicted to build westward and southwestward during the next few days. This steering pattern is expected to keep Lee on a west-northwestward trajectory with a slower forward speed. By next Wednesday, the hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest and north-northwest in the flow between a trough over the eastern United States and the southwestern edge of the ridge. While the model guidance is in good agreement about the general synoptic setup, there remain differences in how far west Lee will move before it makes the turn. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous predictions and lies just to the south of the various track consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee`s core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee`s forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 19.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.4N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 22.8N 63.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.2N 64.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 23.9N 66.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 25.7N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
