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| #1152319 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 11.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023 Lee has been holding steady in strength this morning. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Lee and found that the minimum pressure was around 948 mb while a combination of the measured flight-level and SFMR winds support holding the initial intensity at 105 kt. The aircraft data have also shown a clear indication of concentric eyewalls, which will likely cause fluctuations, both up and down, in Lee`s intensity over the next day or two. The major hurricane is moving slowly toward the northwest at about 7 kt. A continued slow motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected during the next couple of days as Lee continues to be steered by a mid-level high to its north-northeast. Around the middle of the week, the ridge is expected to shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. This pattern change should cause Lee to turn northward with an increase in forward speed. The models have generally changed little this cycle, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. Lee is likely to pass near, but to the west of Bermuda, late Thursday and Friday and be situated offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and New England by the end of the forecast period. As mentioned above, fluctuations in strength are likely in the short term due to eyewall replacement cycles, but there is an opportunity for some strengthening during that time since the system is expected to remain over very warm waters and in relatively low wind shear conditions. Beyond a couple of days, however, progressively cooler waters and a notable increase in shear should cause Lee to gradually weaken. Although the weakening is forecast later in the week, Lee is expected to significantly increase in size and hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week. 2. Lee could bring strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to Bermuda later this week. Interests there should monitor the latest forecasts. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee might have along the Northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late this week and this weekend, however, wind and rainfall hazards will likely extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 23.5N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 23.9N 64.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 24.4N 65.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.9N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 28.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 33.1N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 38.9N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
