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| #1152365 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 11.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2023 Lee continues to exhibit a double eyewall structure as reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and seen in recent microwave images. The inner eyewall is open on the south side, but the outer eyewall is completely closed and has contracted slightly from the earlier NOAA P-3 aircraft mission. The minimum pressure is the same as before, 948 mb, but the initial wind speed is nudged downward to 100 kt based on the aircraft data. The major hurricane has jogged a little to the left recently, and the initial motion is estimated to be 290/7 kt. The models are similar to the previous runs, and no big changes were made to the NHC track forecast. A continued slow motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected during the next couple of days as Lee remains steered by a mid-level high to its north-northeast. Beyond a couple of days, the ridge is expected to shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. This pattern change should cause Lee to turn northward with an increase in forward speed. Lee is likely to pass near, but to the west of Bermuda, late Thursday and Friday and then be situated offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and New England late Friday and Saturday. Given the current concentric eyewall structure, it seems likely that Lee will fluctuate in strength in the short term. However, since the hurricane will remain in generally conducive conditions during the next couple of days, it could restrengthen if the eyewall cycle completes. Lee is likely to move over a cool SST wake left behind by Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin later this week, and cross over the north wall of the Gulf Stream by the end of the forecast period. The combination of cooler SSTs, an increase in shear, and dry air entrainment should cause a steady decay in strength late this week and over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Lee is expected to weaken later in the week, it is expected to significantly increase in size and hazards will extend well away from the storm center by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week. 2. Lee could bring strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to Bermuda later this week. Interests there should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee might have along the Northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late this week and this weekend. However, wind and rainfall hazards will likely extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 23.6N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 24.0N 65.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 24.6N 66.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 25.3N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 26.5N 67.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 28.3N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 30.3N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 35.4N 67.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 40.8N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
