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| #1152692 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 13.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Lee earlier this afternoon and found that the hurricane has lost some strength. The initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt based on the aircraft data. Although the core winds have decreased some, the wind field has become quite expansive, with the hurricane-force winds now extending roughly 100 n mi away from the center. The satellite appearance of Lee has been relatively steady state through the day and there is still evidence of concentric eyewalls. Lee`s forward speed is beginning to increase, and it is now moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A progressively faster motion to the north on the west side of a subtropical ridge is forecast during the next couple of days, taking the core of the system to the west of Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night. The combination of a shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic States and a building ridge extending into Atlantic Canada should cause Lee to turn slightly to the left Friday night and Saturday, which will likely bring Lee close to southeastern New England before it moves near or over Maine and Atlantic Canada later in the weekend. The GFS and ECMWF models have converged, and are now near the previous NHC track forecast. The new NHC track forecast is again just an update of the previous one and near the various consensus models. The environment ahead of Lee is expected to gradually become less conducive for the hurricane as it moves into a region of higher wind shear, drier air, and over progressively cooler SSTs. These conditions favor weakening, but since the system is so large the weakening process should be slow. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, in part due to the initial lower wind speed, and remains near the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Lee will be a large hurricane near the coast of New England Friday night and Saturday. It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. 2. Hurricane conditions, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding are possible in portions of eastern Maine on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that area. 3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch has been issued. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible over a large portion of coastal New England, including Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha`s Vineyard, and Block Island, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 27.4N 67.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 28.7N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 30.9N 68.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 33.4N 67.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 36.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 39.7N 66.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 42.6N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 47.7N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/1800Z 52.3N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
