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| #1152753 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 14.Sep.2023) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 200 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA IN A FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 68.0W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine * Block Island * Martha`s Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence * Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence * Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to Porter’s Lake A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Cod Bay * Nantucket A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 68.0 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally northward motion and an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda today and tonight and then approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Lee is expected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). Saildrone 1065 recently measured a sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h), a gust to 94 mph (152 km/h), and a significant wave height of 44 feet (13.3 meters) while located about 65 miles (100 km) northeast of Lee`s center. The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda starting in a few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of Down East Maine and in the Hurricane Watch area in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of coastal New England and Atlantic Canada in the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning Friday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft Nantucket...2-4 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft Boston Harbor...1-3 ft Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft Long Island Sound...1-3 ft Martha`s Vineyard...1-3 ft Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and are beginning to reach Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee could produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda today into early Friday. From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
