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| #1152897 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 14.Sep.2023) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 67.6W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border * Martha`s Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 67.6 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to pass west-northwest of Bermuda through tonight, approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday afternoon. Some gradual weakening is forecast Friday night and Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the next couple of days. Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New England on Friday afternoon and spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Atlantic Canada by late Friday into Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft Long Island Sound...1-3 ft Cape Cod...1-3 ft Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft Boston Harbor...1-3 ft Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda overnight and early Friday. From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
