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| #1152963 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 15.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023 Lee remains a very large hurricane over the western Atlantic. ASCAT data from this morning showed the wind field expanding, with the hurricane-force winds around 100 miles and tropical-storm-force winds more than 300 miles outward from the center. New data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the core winds remain steady with an intensity of 70 kt. Lee continues to be an asymmetric hurricane with most of the convection on the north side of the system. The hurricane continues to wobble around, but it is generally moving northward at 17 kt during the last 12-18 hours on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Lee will continue to move northward around the same speed until it makes landfall in Atlantic Canada in approximately 24 to 30 hours. Once Lee makes landfall, it is still expected to accelerate to the northeast as it moves in the flow on the east side of an approaching trough. The models remain in quite good agreement, and the NHC track forecast was only slightly shifted to the left to follow the new guidance through landfall. Otherwise, no significant changes were made. Southerly vertical wind shear and dry air continue eroding deep convection on Lee`s south side. These environmental conditions will persist while Lee moves over sharply cooler waters when it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream during the next day or so. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast and Lee will likely become a strong extratropical cyclone around the time it makes landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one and continues to be fairly close to the GFS model. However, Lee is expected to remain a very large and dangerous system over the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions southern New Brunswick, and much of Nova Scotia on Saturday within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are expected to begin in southern New England within the Tropical Storm Warning area this evening, and spread northward along the coast of New England and over portions of Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential power outages. 2. Heavy rainfall from Lee could produce localized urban and small stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine, New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 37.9N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 40.5N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 43.5N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z 49.0N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0600Z 51.7N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1800Z 53.9N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster A Reinhart/Cangialosi |
