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| #1153009 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 15.Sep.2023) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IMMINENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 65.8W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border * Martha`s Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence, including Grand Manan Island * New Brunswick from Shediac to Tidnish * Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac * Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove * Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Lee has been moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) over the past few hours. A north to north-northwest motion is forecast to resume later tonight, and this motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Lee is a very large and dangerous storm. Maximum sustained winds, based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast, with Lee expected to become extra-tropical on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). NOAA Buoy 44011 located about 205 miles (180 km) north of the center has recently reported a peak one-minute sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/hr) and a gust of 67 mph (107 km/hr). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches) based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New England very soon and then spread northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential power outages. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Late tonight into Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, or 50 to 125 millimeters over portions of eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... East of Montauk Point, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft Cape Cod...1-3 ft Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft Boston Harbor...1-3 ft Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft Long Island Sound...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown |
