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| #1153088 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 16.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023 The core of Lee is very near the west coast of Nova Scotia. Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure has been steady at 965 mb, but the surface winds are down a little to 65 kt. Dropsonde data indicate that winds are notably stronger just off the surface, so significant wind gusts are likely in areas of heavy rain and over elevated terrain near the coast. In fact, an observation on Grand Manan Island in New Brunswick, Canada, recently recorded a wind gust of 81 kt (150 km/h). Radar data from New England and Nova Scotia show bands of heavy rain onshore of portions of coastal New England and Atlantic Canada. Lee continues to accelerate northward and has jogged to the left this morning. The core of the cyclone will likely brush the western portion of Nova Scotia during the next couple of hours and then move inland near or just east of the U.S./Canada border this afternoon. After landfall, a faster northeastward motion is expected as a trough approaches the system, which should take Lee across portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, and the core winds are likely to come ashore in far down east Maine and western portions of New Brunswick. Steady weakening is expected after Lee moves inland, and the system is expected to dissipate by late Monday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of southern New Brunswick and Nova Scotia later today within the Hurricane Watch areas. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are occurring across portions of coastal Maine and Atlantic Canada, and will continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas. The strong winds are already leading to downed trees and power outages. 2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small stream flooding in portions of far eastern Massachusetts, eastern Maine, New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia today. 3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 43.5N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/0000Z 45.7N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 48.3N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 50.8N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z 53.0N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
