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| #1153131 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 16.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023 Tropical Storm Margot's low-level center remains exposed, as strong northerly upper-level winds displace the deep convection to the south and west. The CIRA Layered Precipitable Water satellite product shows that Margot has been nearly encircled by dry mid-level air. The subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and the objective intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Since the last advisory, Margot has turned westward at 270/7 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to continue a clockwise loop around a mid-level ridge. As the ridge builds southeastward, Margot will turn north, then back towards the east around the northern side of the ridge. An eastward motion is forecast through the remainder of the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are not expected to improve through the forecast period. Model guidance continues to show that Margot could lose its deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low sooner than forecast. However, on Monday Margot is forecast to interact with the southern periphery of a shortwave trough arriving from the northwest. This could introduce enough instability to allow convection to reform and for the system to slightly re-intensify. By Wednesday, Margot will be left behind by the shortwave and should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone west of the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 34.3N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 34.1N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 34.6N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 35.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 37.1N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 38.2N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 38.2N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 37.4N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/1800Z 37.5N 29.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci |
