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| #1153134 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 16.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023 The core of Lee briefly moved across Long Island in Western Nova Scotia within the past hour or so. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the center is now over the Bay of Fundy. Rain bands continue to spread across portions of Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia as seen in radar images. A pair of ASCAT passes from several ago showed that Lee remains very large, but the core winds have decreased below hurricane-force. Considering some undersampling of that data, the initial intensity was lowered to 60 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The forward motion of Lee is slower than earlier today as it moves near the west coast of Nova Scotia. However, the storm is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate late tonight and Sunday, bringing the system across the Canadian Maritimes. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast. Strong wind shear, dry air, and land interaction should cause steady weakening during the next day or so. The global models are in agreement that Lee should dissipate on Monday, and that is reflected in the NHC forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are occurring across portions of coastal Maine and Atlantic Canada, and will continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas. The strong winds are leading to downed trees and power outages. 2. Heavy rainfall from Lee could produce localized urban and small stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine and New Brunswick. 3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 44.5N 66.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/0600Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1800Z 49.0N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0600Z 51.5N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
