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| #1153172 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 16.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023 Satellite imagery, surface observations and Canadian radar imagery indicates that the center of Lee is over the Bay of Fundy, near the coast of New Brunswick. Rain bands continue to spread across portions of far eastern Maine and New Brunswick this evening. Drier air is wrapping into the system and has eroded most of the convection on the southern and eastern side of the circulation. Recent observations and a recent partial ASCAT pass support an intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. The forward motion of Lee is slower than earlier today, as the system has stated to make a northeastward turn . This northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected late tonight and Sunday, as the system moves across the Canadian Maritimes. The NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast. Strong wind shear, dry air, and land interaction should cause steady weakening over the next day or so as Lee spins down. The global models are in agreement that Lee should dissipate on Monday, and no real changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are occurring across portions of Atlantic Canada, and will continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas. The strong winds are leading to downed trees and power outages. 2. Any additional rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine and portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. 3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 45.3N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/1200Z 47.2N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 18/0000Z 50.1N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/1200Z 52.5N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown |
