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| #1153213 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 17.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023 Satellite imagery, surface observations and Canadian radar imagery indicates that the center of Lee is near Prince Edward Island, with most of the rain west of the center near New Brunswick. Observations from the southern coast of Nova Scotia support lowering the intensity to 45 kt on this advisory. Lee has turned northeastward at about 19 kt. The system should accelerate in this general direction as it interacts with the stronger mid-latitude flow, but gradually weaken since it has lost any baroclinic forcing. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, except to keep Lee a bit stronger in 36 hours based on the global model wind forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are occurring across portions of Atlantic Canada. These winds could lead to downed trees and power outages. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 46.5N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/1800Z 48.4N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 18/0600Z 51.2N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/1800Z 53.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
