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| #1153853 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 PM 21.Sep.2023) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 75.9W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Duck, North Carolina, to Chincoteague Virginia, including Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point, and for the Neuse River, the Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward in Chesapeake Bay to North Beach, and into the Tidal Potomac to Cobb Island. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse River, Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City NC to Duck NC * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Albemarle and the remainder of Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast by late Friday, and that motion should continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the warning area Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm while it approaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and spread northward Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday night through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
