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| #1154257 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 23.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023 Philippe is still a disorganized tropical storm. Geostationary satellite imagery shows that deep convection is displaced to the northeast of the low-level center. Recent satellite-derived wind data revealed that the surface circulation is still elongated and winds in the southwest quadrant are quite weak. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, based on the ASCAT observations. The tropical storm is moving westward at an estimate 12 kt. This general motion should continue for the next two days, as Philippe moves along the south side of a mid-level ridge. By 60 h, the storm should gradually turn to the west-northwest and northwest as it reaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest track forecast is similar to the previous advisory through day 3, and has shifted to the west and slightly slower at days 4 and 5. Model guidance suggests Philippe should gradually organize and thus slowly strengthen in the next few days. This is possibly due to some mid-level vertical wind shear and upstream dry air. Beyond day 3, Philippe is expected to approach a mid- to upper-level trough, that should increase deep-layer vertical wind shear, but could also increase upper-level difluence. The intensity guidance generally favors some slight intensification during this period. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly above the consensus aid, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.4N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.5N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.3N 47.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 16.7N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 17.4N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.3N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 21.2N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 23.5N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
