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| #1154996 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 28.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2023 The future for Rina has not become any clearer during the past several hours. The cyclone is more or less unchanged since the last advisory, with its center still generally exposed to the northwest of the associated deep convection. The intensity remains 35 kt based on recent operational SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates. During the past day or so, the guidance has flip-flopped over whether Rina or nearby Tropical Storm Philippe will become dominant. While Rina appears to be the better organized of the two at the moment, the latest runs of most models indicate that Philippe is more likely to become the dominant cyclone by early next week. Until the forecast becomes more consistent, it appears prudent to make only very small incremental changes to the official NHC forecast. Therefore, both the intensity and track forecasts are very similar to the previous advisory, but confidence in the NHC forecast is unusually low. Rina is heading northwestward into an area of stronger expected vertical wind shear. A combination of the circulation of Philippe and a ridge centered over the eastern subtropical Atlantic should keep Rina generally on a west-northwest to northwest heading for at least a few days. After that, if Rina deepens or at least maintains its current strength and structure, it could begin to lift northward. However, if it weakens, Rina or its remnants will likely turn westward by early next week. The wind shear should prevent Rina from strengthening much, and could eventually lead to its dissipation in as soon as 4 or 5 days. The NHC track forecast is based heavily on a blend of the previous NHC forecast with the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means, while the intensity forecast is close to the IVCN consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 18.4N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 19.1N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 19.6N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 19.9N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 20.4N 50.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 21.0N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 22.0N 54.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 27.0N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
