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| #1155070 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 29.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023 Over the last few hours, Rina`s center has become exposed with less convective organization noted in the GOES-E satellite imagery. The subjective satellite intensity estimates held steady at 45 kt, while the objective estimates are lower around 35 to 40 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt. Rina`s current motion remains nearly the same, moving north-northwestward at 335/5 kt. Most of the track guidance shows Rina moving generally northwestward through the weekend between nearby Tropical Storm Philippe and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. By early next week, Rina will start to make a turn to the north within the flow between the subtropical ridge and an upper-level trough moving across the western Atlantic. Most of the model guidance shows a shift to the right of the previous forecast track with a faster forward speed. The official NHC forecast track reflects these trends and is adjusted closer to the latest consensus aids. The one notable outlier is the GFS, which shows more of an interaction between Rina and Philippe. The exposed center of Rina indicates a sheared environment, and strong deep-layer shear (partially associated with Philippe) is forecast to persist during the next few days. The official NHC track intensity is held steady through the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening as supported by the latest intensity guidance. By early next week, Rina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low as it begins that turn to the north and open up into a trough by day 5. Some model guidance suggests dissipation could occur even sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is based on this weakening trend, in agreement with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 19.4N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 19.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 20.4N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 21.5N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 22.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 24.0N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 25.6N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart |
