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| #1155426 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:49 PM 01.Oct.2023) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 200 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 ...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT STARTING OVERNIGHT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 58.8W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 58.8 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through tonight. A track toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (275 km), primarily east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday: Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by Monday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
