|
Show Selection: |
| #1155664 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 02.Oct.2023) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 62.1W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda * Antigua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 6 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 62.1 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a generally northwestward motion is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to continue passing near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Tuesday, and move north of those islands by late Tuesday. However, the strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur in the islands to the south of the center. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts into early Wednesday: Barbuda southward to Dominica: 4 to 8 inches Rest of Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands: 3 to 5 inches This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area tonight. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands tonight and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
