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| #1155820 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 03.Oct.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023 Even though the center of Philippe is more than one hundred miles north of the Virgin Islands, heavy rains on the system`s south side continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The cyclone remains poorly organized with the low-level circulation appearing diffuse and convection remaining ragged and lacking organization. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. Philippe is moving northwestward, or 310 degrees, at 10 kt. The models are in good agreement in showing Philippe turning north-northwestward to northward on Wednesday when the storm moves between a mid- to upper-level high over the central Atlantic and a cut off low off the Florida coast. These features should provide the steering currents for Philippe through the remainder of the week, causing a northward motion with some increase in forward speed. The storm is likely to be near Bermuda on Friday. A larger trough is expected to move across eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. late this week and cut off over the weekend. In response, Philippe could turn northwestward into northern New England or Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days. The storm continues to feel the effects of west-northwesterly shear and dry air entrainment, and its poor structure suggests that little, if any, intensification is likely in the short term. The models show some strengthening late this week and early this weekend when Philippe likely gets some baroclinic support from the nearby trough. This interaction should also cause Philippe to gain frontal features and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days before it reaches northern New England or Atlantic Canada. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered flash flooding across portions of the United States & British Virgin Islands through Wednesday. 2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday. 3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on Bermuda late this week. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 21.2N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 22.8N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 24.9N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 27.8N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 30.7N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 33.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 40.5N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 49.0N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
