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| #1155898 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 04.Oct.2023) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 ...PHILIPPE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO DOUSE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 65.7W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. Philippe is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A northward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin tonight and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will approach Bermuda Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some strengthening is possible late this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following additional rainfall totals through today: The U.S. and British Virgin Islands: 1 to 3 inches, with storm totals of 6 to 12 inches. Portions of northeast and southeast Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches, with storm totals of 2 to 4 inches Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches expected through Friday. These rainfall amounts may result in scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday morning. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the the Virgin Islands through today. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
