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| #1156123 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 05.Oct.2023) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 05 2023 ...PHILIPPE TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON BERMUDA BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 66.0W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Philippe. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 66.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near or just west of Bermuda on Friday, and then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible Friday night or Saturday, but Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning early Friday morning. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches expected across Bermuda through Friday. This rainfall could result in flash flooding. For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered instances of urban and flash flooding are expected. For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered instances of urban and flash flooding are expected. SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will increase early Friday as Philippe approaches the island. Swells are also reaching portions of the southeastern U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
