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| #1157965 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 19.Oct.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Tammy Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023 ...TAMMY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 54.8W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, and Nevis. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * Dominica * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, and Nevis A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 54.8 West. Tammy is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Tammy could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Friday. RAINFALL: Through Saturday night, Tammy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Windward into the Leeward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
