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| #1157990 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:13 AM 19.Oct.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 800 AM AST Thu Oct 19 2023 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Tammy has found that the system has strengthened overnight. The plane has measured peak 700-mb flight level winds of 49 kt and several SFMR winds of 50 kt in both the northeast and northern quadrants of the storm. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt. The intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the next few days while Tammy moves over warm SSTS and remains within an environment of low to moderate vertical wind shear. Additional updates to the intensity forecast may be required later this morning. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning on Friday, where tropical storm watches are currently in effect. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. 2. Heavy rains from Tammy will begin to affect the northern Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1200Z 13.5N 55.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 14.5N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.5N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.8N 61.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 18.4N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 19.9N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.3N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.2N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
