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| #1158185 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 20.Oct.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023 ...TAMMY MOVING CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 59.2W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 59.2 West. Tammy is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is anticipated by tonight, followed by a north-northwestward and northward turn Saturday night through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight through Saturday night, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Tammy is expected to be a hurricane while it moves near or over portions of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Leeward Islands on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning tonight. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Northern Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
