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| #1158216 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 PM 20.Oct.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 20 2023 ...TAMMY A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE PASSING JUST EAST OF MARTINIQUE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 60.2W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Tammy is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is anticipated tonight, followed by a north-northwestward and northward turn Saturday night through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight through Saturday night, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so while the hurricane moves near or over portions of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Leeward Islands on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning tonight. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Portions of the Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
