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| #1158231 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:05 AM 21.Oct.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 200 AM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 ...CENTER OF TAMMY PASSING EAST-NORTHEAST OF MARTINIQUE... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 60.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * British Virgin Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 60.3 West. Tammy is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is anticipated this morning, followed by a north-northwestward and northward turn tonight through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands through tonight, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so while the hurricane moves near or over portions of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the hurricane warning area later this morning and spread northward across the Leeward Islands today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Martinique today and the British Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Portions of the Windward Islands: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
