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| #1158321 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 21.Oct.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 ...TAMMY VERY NEAR ANTIGUA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 61.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Guadeloupe, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- t 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 61.3 West. Tammy is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands through early Sunday, and then move north of the northern Leeward Islands by Sunday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the northern Leeward Islands through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the British Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
