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| #1158353 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 21.Oct.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023 ...TAMMY JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BARBUDA... ...CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 61.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF BARBUDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Antigua, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Tammy is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move north of the northern Leeward Islands by Sunday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the British Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with storm total maximum amounts of 12 inches Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches, storm total maximum 6 inches British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum storm total amounts of 4 inches These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
