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| #1158390 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:07 AM 22.Oct.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Tammy Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 AM AST Sun Oct 22 2023 ...TINY CORE OF TAMMY TREKKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 62.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF BARBUDA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 62.3 West. Tammy is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the north or north-northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move further away from the northernmost Leeward Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today followed by fluctuations in strength thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northernmost Leeward Islands for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with storm total maximum amounts of 12 inches Martinique and Dominica: An additional 2 to 4 inches, with storm total maximum of 6 inches British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum storm total amounts of 4 inches These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin |
