Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #1158704 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 24.Oct.2023) TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 24 2023 The hurricane has held steady this morning. Satellite imagery depicts deep bursts of convection mainly to the north of the center and a large curved band around the northern and eastern portions of the system. The most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite estimate is still T4.0/65kt, and the initial intensity remains at 65 kt for this advisory. Tammy is moving northeastward with an estimated motion of 035/6 kt. A mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic should steer the hurricane more northward in a day or so. By day 2, most of the global model guidance shows Tammy turning westward and slowing down between two mid-level ridges through the remainder of the forecast period. Only minor adjustments have been made in the latest NHC track prediction, which lies in the middle of the track guidance envelope. Intensity guidance continues to suggest Tammy should slightly strengthen in the near term. As the hurricane approaches the mid-latitude trough, it should enter a region with enhanced upper-level divergence, and thus strengthen. After about a day or so, strong deep-layer vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures should gradually weaken the cyclone. Tammy is still expected to become a gale-force extratropical cyclone by 60 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 24.2N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 25.0N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 26.7N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 28.6N 59.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 30.1N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 31.2N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1200Z 31.8N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/1200Z 32.5N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/1200Z 32.6N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci |
