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| #1158746 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 24.Oct.2023) TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Tue Oct 24 2023 There have not been many changes in the satellite appearance of Tammy since the previous advisory. Bursts of convection continue to wrap around the estimated surface center. An AMSR2 microwave satellite pass at 1657 UTC showed a closed low-level circulation. While a couple of ASCAT passes showed surface winds less than hurricane strength, the resolution of the instrument likely cannot capture the peak winds in Tammy`s small inner core. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, closest to the TAFB satellite intensity estimate, though this could be generous. Simulated satellite imagery suggests Tammy could strengthen slightly within a day or so when the hurricane enters a region of enhanced upper-level divergence. Beyond this time frame, strong southwesterly shear, dry mid-level relative humidities, and cooling sea surface temperatures should cause Tammy to steadily weaken. Global models now indicate the hurricane should transition into a gale-force extratropical cyclone by 48 h, and this is reflected in the official intensity prediction. Tammy is moving to the northeast at about 7 kt. A mid-latitude trough should turn the hurricane north-northeastward and northward in a day or so. By Thursday, Tammy should bend to the northwest and slow down within the light steering currents between two ridges. A gradual westward turn is expected by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track prediction is slightly to the south of the previous advisory, and forward speed in the long-term forecast has been slowed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 24.6N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 25.6N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 27.5N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 29.2N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0600Z 31.1N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1800Z 31.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/1800Z 32.0N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/1800Z 32.0N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci |
