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| #1158852 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:31 AM 25.Oct.2023) TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 25 2023 Tammy has improved its satellite presentation this morning. Since the previous advisory, the hurricane briefly had a symmetric eye in the satellite infrared and microwave imagery. A nearby deep-layer trough appears to be limiting the western portion of Tammy`s outflow. The subjective and objective intensity estimates have increased to 89 to 92 kt, and therefore the initial intensity has been raised to 90 kt. The upper-level environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the next few hours with enhanced 200 mb divergence associated with the aforementioned trough. After 12 hours, the divergence is expected to decrease and strong shear, cooling SSTs, and surrounding dry subsident air should gradually weaken the hurricane. Model guidance suggests Tammy will undergo extratropical transition by Thursday and as a result, the tropical-storm-force wind field is expected to expand. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the various consensus aids. Tammy is moving northeastward at about 11 kt, within the flow between a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Later today, the cyclone is expected to turn northward followed by a north-northwestward to northwestward turn on Thursday with a slower forward speed. By Friday, Tammy is expected to meander over the northwestern Atlantic in the light steering currents between two building ridges over the eastern Atlantic and southeastern United States. The 3- to 5-day steering flow forecast is rather uncertain and as a result there is a large spread in the track model guidance after 48 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is east of the previous prediction and favors the left side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 26.6N 59.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 28.2N 58.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 29.8N 59.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 30.5N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z 31.0N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/0000Z 31.2N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1200Z 31.4N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/1200Z 31.7N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/1200Z 31.9N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky |
