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| #1158893 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 25.Oct.2023) TCDAT5 Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Wed Oct 25 2023 Tammy is beginning to interact with a front to its north. The eye has lost some of its definition as the northern eyewall slowly erodes. Outflow is now limited to the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have fallen since the last advisory. Final T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are both T4.5 and ADT is down to T4.2. Given the recent degradation in satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt. It appears that Tammy has moved out of the region with favorable upper-level dynamics. Strong upper-level winds and surrounding dry air are expected to steadily weaken the system through the forecast period. Model guidance shows that the hurricane should become entangled with the frontal feature to its north and transition into an extratropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. By 48 hours, the global models depict Tammy occluding and shedding its front. Therefore, the most recent NHC forecast shows the system as a post-tropical cyclone instead of extratropical beginning at day 2. There is a possibility that Tammy could regain tropical or subtropical status as the vortex meanders over sufficiently warm ocean waters during days 2 and 3. Tammy is still moving northeastward, but model guidance insists that the hurricane will make a turn to the north shortly. This is followed by a northwestward turn with a slower forward speed by Thursday. By Friday, Tammy is expected to meander over the northwestern Atlantic in the light steering currents between two building ridges over the eastern Atlantic and southeastern United States. The official NHC track forecast shows Tammy slowly turning back to the east by the weekend. However, more model guidance is showing a faster turn to the east resulting in a large spread in the track guidance envelope. The current forecast is on the western edge of the track solutions and is closest to the GFS. Further adjustments may be needed if these trends continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 28.0N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 29.5N 58.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 30.5N 59.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0600Z 31.1N 60.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1800Z 31.5N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 28/0600Z 31.8N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 28/1800Z 32.1N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 29/1800Z 32.5N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1800Z 32.8N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky |
