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| #1159170 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 27.Oct.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023 Tammy`s cloud pattern hasn`t changed much on satellite images since earlier today. There has been some cooling of the convective cloud tops to about -60 deg C near the center of circulation along with a few banding features. There is limited upper-level outflow to the south and east of the system. The current intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with an objective ADT Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS. Tammy is currently situated over SSTs of around 25 deg C in a marginally moist mid-level air mass. The dynamical guidance indicates a significant increase in vertical wind shear during the next day or so. This should cause a gradual weakening trend to commence soon. Later in the forecast period, although the ocean waters under Tammy should get a little warmer, strong shear and substantially drier air should cause continued weakening. The official intensity forecast is above most of the model guidance, so Tammy could weaken to a depression sooner than shown here. Tammy is currently moving slowly northwestward at about 320/3 kt. The cyclone should soon turn to an eastward track and move along the northern side of a subtropical ridge for a couple of days. Later in the forecast period, Tammy is expected to turn southward and move along the eastern side of a mid-level high. The official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 32.5N 61.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 32.7N 60.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 32.7N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 32.3N 56.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 31.2N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 28.5N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 28.0N 51.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 27.5N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
