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| #1159200 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 27.Oct.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 27 2023 Strong southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Tammy tonight. Its limited convection is confined to the northeastern portion of its circulation, which is partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite images. This shear has resulted in the vortex becoming vertically tilted, with the mid-level center displaced to the northeast of the low-level center in recent AMSR2 passive microwave images. Based on these structural changes and the decreasing satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The deep-layer shear is expected to persist over Tammy during the next few days, which should result in weakening while the storm moves over marginal SSTs. While the forecast track does bring the center of Tammy over warmer waters by early next week, the much drier and more convergent upper-level environment should make it difficult for Tammy to sustain organized convection. In fact, GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite data indicate Tammy could be completely devoid of convection within the next 2-3 days. The updated NHC forecast is lower than the previous one, following the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Post-tropical remnant low status is shown in 72 h, although this could occur even sooner than forecast. The long-term motion of Tammy is north-northwestward (335/4 kt), but recent satellite images indicate the cyclone is now turning northward as anticipated. A faster eastward to southeastward motion is forecast over the weekend as Tammy moves around the northern and eastern sides of a mid-level ridge. Then, the weakening cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn southward on Monday as the ridge becomes positioned to its west. No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which still lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 32.7N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 32.9N 60.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 32.6N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 31.9N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 30.5N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 29.1N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 28.2N 51.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 28.1N 52.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
