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| #1159317 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 28.Oct.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 500 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 As anticipated, Tropical Storm Tammy has weakened slightly today. The convection has waned in the vicinity of the low-level circulation center, which is now completely exposed on visible satellite imagery and largely devoid of convection. Current subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to trend downward, and a blend of these estimates supports a reduction of Tammy`s initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the prior NHC forecast. It is possible that convection may return episodically during the next day or so, but a combination of strong shear and a dry mid-level airmass will likely preclude intensification throughout the forecast period. Tammy is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low early next week. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast and represents a blend of the prior forecast and the intensity consensus guidance. After accelerating earlier this morning, Tammy is now moving steadily eastward at 90/13 kt. Beginning tonight, the tropical storm is expected to gradually turn southeastward and then southward during the next day or two as it tracks along the northern and eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Early next week, Tammy and its remnants are forecast to make a gradual turn to the southwest before dissipating. The new NHC forecast is slightly faster than the prior advisory and represents a blend of consensus aids and the prior NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 33.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 33.0N 54.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 31.8N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 30.3N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 28.6N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 27.4N 46.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 47.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Blake |
