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| #1159348 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 28.Oct.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023 Tammy`s second time as a tropical cyclone appears near its end. While some sheared puffs of moderate convection have attempted to re-form off to the northeast of an increasingly elongated circulation center, this activity lacks sufficient organization to maintain Tammy as a tropical cyclone. For now, advisories will be continued in the event that there could be one final nocturnal burst of deeper convection closer to the center. In the mean time, satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT data suggest some continued spin down from this afternoon, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt this advisory. If more organized convection does not return soon, Tammy could become a post-tropical low as soon as overnight, and likely during the day tomorrow as the storm succumbs to the increasingly hostile high shear and dry mid-level air environment. Tammy is beginning to lose latitude, with the estimated motion now east-southeast at 105/15 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, Tammy or its remnant low should be primarily steered clockwise around an amplifying ridge to the storm`s north and west. This should result in a further turn southeastward and then southward before the low-level circulation opens up into a trough. The latest NHC forecast is once again a bit faster than the prior forecast, but lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 32.6N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 32.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 30.5N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 27.5N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1200Z 26.5N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
