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| #11607 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 09.Oct.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004 THE LATEST CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE STORM AND THE PREVIOUSLY IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE HAS BEEN SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ASSUMED CENTER LOCATION AND HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AND HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY. THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS IS MOST GENEROUS. I WOULD NEVER GUESS THAT THERE WAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT I WOULD RATHER NOT KILL THE STORM BASED ON INFRARED IMAGERY. THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND... NOT SURPRISINGLY...I AM FORECASTING THAT MATHEW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE WAS NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS MORNING. DATA BUOY 42002 REPORTED A WIND OF 320/10 AT 07Z SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS NORTHEAST OF THE BUOY. THERE WAS A HINT OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW CLOUD CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUPPORTS THIS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/08. A DEEP-LAYER MEAN LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER TEXAS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE STORM NORTHWARD AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 25.6N 92.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 26.4N 92.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 28.1N 90.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 30.6N 89.4W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 11/0600Z 32.5N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 12/0600Z 35.5N 88.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
