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| #11647 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 09.Oct.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004 STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMOVED THE CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND MATTHEW HAS BECOME AN ELONGATED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER WITHIN A BAND LOCATED NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN IN HEAVY SQUALLS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK MATTHEW THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...NO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE GFDL INSISTS ON INTENSIFYING MATTHEW DESPITE THE SHEAR. ONCE AGAIN...GLOBAL MODELS HAD THE CORRECT IDEA. MATTHEW IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 9 KNOTS...AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE LOUSIANA COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 26.7N 92.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 28.0N 91.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 11/0000Z 32.5N 91.0W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 11/1200Z 34.5N 91.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
