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| #11669 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 09.Oct.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004 AFTER A PERIOD OF WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING... SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IT IS ONLY A CHANGE OF 5 KNOTS...WHICH IS WITHIN THE NOISE LEVEL OF ESTIMATING INTENSITY...BUT IT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND A TROPICAL STORM. LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 997 MB. SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OCCURS AGAIN IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEVERTHERLESS...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LOUISIANA COAST AS A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY IN GUSTS DURING HEAVY SQUALLS. GIVING THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE EASTERN CIRCULATION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. THEREFORE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 27.3N 91.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 29.1N 91.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 31.5N 90.9W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 11/0600Z 33.5N 91.0W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 11/1800Z 36.0N 91.5W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
