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| #11730 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 10.Oct.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004 A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 49 KNOTS AT 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 05Z AND 1001 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS PROBABLY NEAR 40 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. MORE RECENTLY...THE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED AND SO HAS THE CONVECTION OF WHICH THERE IS VERY LITTLE...SO THE 09Z WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KNOTS. WITH 40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LITTLE CHANGE...PERHAPS WEAKENING...IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/08. A MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER MEAN LOW OVER TEXAS AND THE CENTER SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN JUST A FEW MORE HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 28.5N 91.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 30.1N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 11/0600Z 32.4N 90.9W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 11/1800Z 34.4N 91.8W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/0600Z 35.7N 92.7W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
