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| #1186499 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:38 PM 28.Jun.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the central tropical Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized deep convection in bands around the center. In addition, visible satellite images show that the circulation has tightened, and the center now appears well-defined. Thus, a tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications. Development this far east in late June is unusual, in fact, there have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year. The depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the system should keep it moving relatively quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. The system might gain a little more latitude toward the end of the forecast period when it nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge. There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially in the day 3-5 time frame, due to differences in the strength of the ridge and the aforementioned weakness. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids and is slightly south of the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week. Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June. However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days. Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast. For example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below 970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. 2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later tonight or early Saturday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 9.1N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 9.4N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 10.1N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 10.7N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 11.3N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 13.0N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
