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| #1186534 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:45 PM 28.Jun.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 Since becoming a depression earlier this afternoon, deep convection has continued to burst with infrared satellite imagery depicting cold cloud tops down to -80C. The center of circulation remains on the eastern side of the deep convection, but the system is gradually becoming better organized with banding features and better vertical alignment. Intensity estimates have increased this cycle with subjective Dvorak estimates of T2.0/T2.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS are around 34-36 kt as well. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 35 kt, and the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Beryl is one of only a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year. Tropical Storm Beryl is moving westward at 16 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. This should keep Beryl moving swiftly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days, with the model guidance remains tightly clustered as the system moves towards the Windward Islands. There is a little more spread in the model guidance beyond day 3, when the system nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is very similar to the previous forecast track. Based on this forecast, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions, atypical for this time of year, are fairly favorable for strengthening the next few days with warm sea surface temperatures, plenty of moisture, and low vertical wind shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows the system becoming a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. It should be noted that some of the model guidance is still quite aggressive and a fair amount are even higher than the official forecast. Some hurricane regional models and consensus aids show the system becoming a major hurricane prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. 2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands early Saturday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 9.3N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 9.7N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 10.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 11.0N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 11.7N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 12.5N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 13.6N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 16.0N 71.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 17.8N 77.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly |
