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| #1186639 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 29.Jun.2024) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 ...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 49.3W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for the island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Tobago A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area this evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 49.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas Sunday night or Monday morning. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning and watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. Showers and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday. Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
