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| #1186717 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 30.Jun.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 Beryl`s structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes rapid intensification. Recent GOES 1-minute satellite imagery shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the eyewall and a warming eye. The initial wind speed is set to 85 kt, closest to the CIMSS Satellite Consensus Estimates, and could be too low. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to get a better estimate of the initial intensity for the next forecast advisory. Now that the core has solidified based on a recent AMSR2 microwave pass, continued rapid intensification looks likely over the next 24 hours while Beryl is over SSTs near 29C and within shear less than 10 kt. There`s no obvious reason it shouldn`t become a very powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane to level off in intensity, then weaken through about midweek. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but the NHC forecast is raised at day 5 as more models are showing lessening shear in the western Caribbean. The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west, estimated at 280/18 kt. There aren`t any significant track changes from the previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days. Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track, and the NHC track prediction is basically an update of the previous one. This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward Islands, so please listen to your local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands early Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands tonight and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 10.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
