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| #1186795 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 30.Jun.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 After rapidly strengthening for two days straight, Beryl`s intensity appears to have leveled off. The extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane has a circular 10 n mi eye with mesovorticies within it. However, the convection in the eyewall has become a little less symmetric over the past few hours as it has eroded a bit on the south side. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite estimates. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again later this evening. Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. A continued relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as subtropical ridging remains the primary steering feature. Only a minor shift to the north has been made this cycle, following the trend in the latest models. Fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes in conducive environments, and it is expected that Beryl will also fluctuate in strength for the next day or so. There is high confidence that Beryl will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands. As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should induce a slow weakening trend. However, it should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be rushed to completion today. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 11.1N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
